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Impact of cap & trade bill on U.S. Economy

Publication Description:

A just released Charles Rivers Associates International and Coalition for Affordable American Energy report demonstrates that the proposed climate provisions within the Obama Administration's proposed FY 2010 budget will have profound negative impacts on energy availability, energy costs, and overal economic health of the country.

The Coalition for Affordable American Energy (CAAE) is made up of over 200 American businesses, industry associations, and Chambers of Commerce. Specifically, the report notes,

 

Impact on the Economy of the Climate Provision in the Obama Administration FY 2010 Budget ProposalImpact on the Economy of the Climate Provision in the Obama Administration FY 2010 Budget Proposal
  •  The planned carbon caps will reduce carbon emissions by restricting the use of conventional energy. CO2 prices are expected to raise from $29/tonne in 2015 to as high as $116/tonne in 2030.
  • RisingCO2 costs will force energy costs to rise precipitously. Natural gas costs are forecast to rise by 39% ($4.70) by 2020 and then by 56% ($7.20 per MMBtu) by 2025 relative to the EIAs Annual Energy Outlook reference case. Motor fuels will rise by 48 cents per gallon in 2020 and then by 74 cents per gallon relative to baseline levels. Electricity costs will increase by 27% (3.6 cents/kWh) in 2020 and by 44% (5.8 cents/kWh) in 2025.
  • Net job losses -- inclusive of those jobs created by increased funding of renewable energy -- will rise to 800,000 in 2015, then more than double by 2020, to 1.9 million, and rocket to approximately 3.2 million by 2025.
  • Annual household purchasing power will decline rapidly by $1,020 in 2015, by $1,381 in 2020, and then plummet to $2,127 by 2030 (after accounting for promised rebates from the sale of carbon credits).

The report continues by noting that the U.S. energy sector will suffer substantial setbacks as it is reorganized to meet legislative and regulatory requirements.

  • Natural gas demand will expand by 3.0 Tcf relative to baseline levels, driving costs of gas up by 56% (7.20/MMBtu) by 2025. Demand will then drop to 1.5 Tcf by 2030 to account for increasingly stringent emissions caps.
  • Domestic gas production will be heavily impacted by increased costs  and strict regulations. Therefore, growing demand will need to be primarily met by a 160% (2.0 Tcf) rise in gas imports. 
  • Increased domestic costs will place U.S.-based refineries at a competitive disadvantage and energy production will be driven offshore.

 

Impact on the Economy of the Climate Provision in the Obama Administration's FY 2010 Budget ProposalImpact on the Economy of the Climate Provision in the Obama Administration's FY 2010 Budget Proposal

 

Readers can download the full report on the U.S. Chamber of Commerce website.

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